Used EV Values in 2026: Up Year Over Year, Falling Fast Month to Month

Vehicle Intelligence · United States

By TradeBasis · Published October 3, 2026 · Figures verified October 3, 2026

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Used EV values were up 2.3% year over year in mid-September 2026 while the rest of the wholesale market was down 1.3%. Over the same ten weeks, used EVs lost 7.9% of their value in absolute terms against 3.1% for everything else. Both figures come from the same index, cover the same months, and are correct. Only one of them should be anywhere near your appraisal.

Measure	Value and period	Source
EV Index, year over year	+2.3%, mid-September 2026	Manheim / Cox Automotive
EV Index, cumulative change	-7.9%, end June to mid-September 2026	Manheim / Cox Automotive
Non-EV Index, same ten weeks	-3.1%	Manheim / Cox Automotive
EVs coming off lease	300,000+ in 2026 vs ~123,000 in 2025	NIADA
EV share of all off-lease vehicles	15% projected by end 2026, from 7.7% in Q1	Experian
National average regular gasoline	$4.48/gal, September 24, 2026	AAA

What the data on used EV values actually says

Four months of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, split by powertrain into the Manheim EV Index and its non-EV counterpart. Read the year-over-year column and used EV prices are the standout story of 2026. Read the month-over-month column and they are the worst-performing one in the market.

Period	Index	EV, YoY	EV, MoM	Non-EV, YoY	Non-EV, MoM
June 2026	212.9	+12.0%	+1.7%	+1.7%	+0.6%
July 2026	210.0	+10.5%	-2.1%	+0.4%	-1.1%
August 2026	208.2	+4.5%	-4.7%	-0.9%	-0.6%
Mid-September 2026	206.2	+2.3%	-1.3%	-1.3%	-1.4%

Cox Automotive, Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, seasonally adjusted and adjusted for mix and mileage. September figures cover the first half of the month.

Three things fall out of that table.

The year-over-year advantage is collapsing. In June, used EV values were running 10.3 percentage points ahead of everything else. By mid-September the gap was 3.6 points. That is 6.7 points of outperformance erased in roughly three and a half months, and on the current trajectory the EV line crosses below zero within weeks.

Used EV depreciation is running in large monthly steps. August alone took 4.7% off used EV values — more than five times the 0.9% decline in the rest of the market that month. Compounded across July, August and the first half of September, used EV values fell 7.9% while the non-EV index fell 3.1%.

The overall market turned negative underneath all of it. The headline index went from +2.1% year over year in June to -0.4% by mid-September, with wholesale supply at 27.8 days, up 2.4 days on the year. EVs are falling faster than a market that is itself now falling.

Why used EV values give two different answers, and which one to use

This is not a data error and it is not a contradiction. It is what happens when you measure a turning point against a twelve-month-old baseline.

A year-over-year figure answers: how does today compare with this date last year? A month-over-month figure answers: which way is it moving right now? When the prior year was unusually weak — and used EV values were weak for most of 2025 — the year-over-year number stays positive for months after prices have turned down. It is measuring the hole the market climbed out of, not the direction it is travelling in.

Which one matters depends entirely on what you are doing with it:

Question	Use	Why
What do I pay for this trade today?	Live comparables	Neither index figure is current enough. You need listings from this week.
Which way is the segment moving?	Month over month	It is the only one that reflects the current direction of travel.
How is the segment doing against last year?	Year over year	Correct for annual reporting, and only for that.
Should I stock more EVs next quarter?	Supply pipeline	Off-lease EV supply tells you more about Q1 than either index does.

Almost every article written about used EV prices in 2026 has led with the year-over-year figure, because it is the one in the headline of the monthly release and it tells a cleaner story. A dealer who priced inventory off it between July and September bought high on every electric unit that came through the door.

What is actually driving used EV depreciation right now

The off-lease EV supply wave arrived

This is the whole story, and it was forecast years ago by anyone watching lease originations.

More than 300,000 electric vehicles are projected to come off lease during 2026, against roughly 123,000 in 2025 — an increase of more than 200%. Experian expects EVs to account for 15% of all off-lease vehicles by the end of 2026, up from 7.7% in the first quarter. The returning units are mostly 2022 and 2023 models with around 25,000 miles, leased during the period when federal and state incentives were cutting monthly payments hard.

That volume is now in the lanes. EVs passed 4% of all units in the Manheim Index in July for the first time this year, and held above it. A segment that small absorbs new supply badly: there is no deep pool of buyers to take up the slack, so the clearing price moves a long way on relatively few extra cars. That is precisely why the monthly steps are 4.7% rather than 0.9%.

Why high gas prices stopped lifting used EV prices

Through the first half of 2026, Cox Automotive attributed EV strength to fuel costs. In mid-June, with gasoline above $4 a gallon, chief economist Jeremy Robb noted that “EVs and compact cars continue to show stronger price appreciation, a sign that affordability may be doing some work behind the scenes.” That was a reasonable read of the data at the time.

It stopped holding in the third quarter. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.48 a gallon on September 24, 2026 — up 38 cents in a month, up $1.32 on the year, a 41.7% annual increase, and the highest level ever recorded for that point in the calendar. Used EV values fell through August and into September anyway.

When fuel prices rise 9% in a month and the segment that benefits most from expensive fuel still depreciates 4.7%, the demand side is no longer what is setting the price. Supply is.

The incentive base shifted a year ago

The federal used clean vehicle credit under Section 25E — up to $4,000, or 30% of the sale price, whichever was less, on qualifying used EVs priced at $25,000 or below — expired on September 30, 2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, having been introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act on January 1, 2023.

That matters for reading the data as much as for the market itself. The 2025 comparison base used in every 2026 year-over-year figure straddles that expiry. Several state programs continued into 2026 — California, Colorado and Massachusetts among them — on terms that vary and change, so confirm current eligibility in your own state rather than working from a national summary.

What a stale comparable costs you on an EV

Here is the practical consequence, in dollars.

Take a used EV you would have valued at $24,000 at the end of June 2026. Applying the actual index movement since:

Scenario	Value mid-September	Change
Priced at EV index movement (-7.9%)	$22,101	-$1,899
Priced as if it moved like the market (-3.1%)	$23,263	-$737
Priced off a ten-week-old comparable set	$24,000	$1,899 too high

Illustrative, applying published index movements to a single hypothetical unit. Index figures describe the aggregate wholesale market and are not a valuation for any specific vehicle.

On a lot taking in two EVs a month, a comparable set that is consistently ten weeks stale is roughly $45,600 of overpaid acquisition cost across a year — and that is before holding cost on units that are harder to move than the combustion equivalent.

Note that the error is not symmetric with the rest of your inventory. A ten-week-old comparable on a gas truck is about 3% high in this market. On an EV it is nearly 8%. The same appraisal process produces more than twice the error on one segment, which is why “our numbers are usually close enough” quietly stops being true the moment electric units start arriving in volume.

How to appraise a used EV in this market

Six steps, in order of how much money each one protects.

1. Decode to the trim and battery, not the nameplate

Two cars wearing the same badge and model year can differ by tens of kilowatt-hours of usable capacity and more than a hundred miles of range. Pack size, motor count, and whether the car has a heat pump or the fast-charge option move value more than most option packages do on a combustion vehicle. Match the comparable set to the pack.

2. Use comparables under two weeks old

The Manheim EV Index moved 4.7% in a single month, so comparable age is a bigger source of error than condition. Two weeks is a reasonable ceiling; a month is pushing it; ten weeks is the $1,899 mistake above.

3. Read the monthly trend, not the annual headline

Year over year tells you about last September. You are buying a car this week and selling it in sixty days.

4. Establish battery state of health before you commit

Battery condition is the EV equivalent of compression and transmission health, and none of it is visible on a walkaround. Pull a state-of-health reading or run a charge-and-range check. An unverified pack is an unpriced risk, and the discount a retail buyer demands for one is larger than the cost of checking.

5. Check what battery warranty remains, and whether it transfers

Manufacturers differ on whether battery coverage passes to a second owner and on what terms. A unit with substantial transferable coverage left retails faster and supports a stronger number than an identical unit without it. This is one of the few places where a documented check adds real value rather than just avoiding loss.

6. Price the days-to-sell, not just the value

EVs reach a narrower buyer pool than equivalent combustion vehicles in most markets. A correct value on a unit that takes ninety days to move is still a loss. Check how many comparable units are listed locally and how long they have been sitting before you set the number.

What this means for your lot

Do not read the monthly headline and stop. The year-over-year figure is the one in the press release and the one every aggregator repeats. It has been telling a story about 2025 for three months now. The month-over-month line in the same release is free, published at the same time, and currently says the opposite.

Treat EV comparable age as a separate control. If your process tolerates month-old comparables across the board, that tolerance is costing roughly 3% on combustion inventory and nearly 8% on electric. Either tighten it for EVs specifically or tighten it everywhere.

Expect off-lease EV supply to keep building into 2027. The wave is a volume event with a known shape: leases written in 2022 and 2023 return on a schedule. Experian’s 15%-of-all-off-lease projection is for the end of 2026, which means the back half of that wave has not landed yet.

The opportunity is on the buy side. A segment depreciating 2.6 times faster than the market is a segment where accurate valuation is worth 2.6 times more. Dealers who can value these units correctly will buy them well from the people who cannot — and the ones who cannot are the ones still working from a book that was printed against last year’s numbers.

That is the honest connection between this data and what we sell, and it is the whole of it: TradeBasis is appraisal and market intelligence software. It is not an EV diagnostic tool, it does not read battery state of health, and it has no EV-specific features. What it does is value a vehicle against live US dealer listings, matched by trim, with every comparable shown and linked — so the number reflects this week’s market rather than last quarter’s.

Questions dealers ask

Are used EV values going up or down in 2026?

Both, depending on the comparison. In the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, used EV values were 2.3% higher in mid-September 2026 than a year earlier, while the non-EV index was 1.3% lower. But measured month to month, the Manheim EV Index fell 2.1% in July, 4.7% in August and a further 1.3% in the first half of September — a compounded decline of 7.9% from the end of June. Over the same ten weeks the non-EV index fell 3.1%. Used EVs are therefore above year-ago levels and depreciating roughly 2.6 times faster than the rest of the market right now.

Why do year-over-year and month-over-month figures disagree?

Because they measure against different baselines. A year-over-year figure compares today against a point twelve months ago, so it stays positive for months after values have turned down if the base period was unusually weak. Used EV values were depressed through much of 2025, which makes 2026 comparisons flattering. Month-over-month measures the current direction of travel. For pricing inventory you are buying today and selling in sixty days, the month-over-month figure is the relevant one.

Why did used EV values fall so sharply in the second half of 2026?

Supply. More than 300,000 electric vehicles are projected to come off lease in 2026, against roughly 123,000 in 2025 — an increase of more than 200%. Experian expects EVs to make up 15% of all off-lease vehicles by the end of 2026, up from 7.7% in the first quarter. Most returning units are 2022 and 2023 models with around 25,000 miles. That volume arrived in the wholesale lanes through the third quarter, and EV share of Manheim sales volume passed 4% for the first time this year in July.

Didn’t high gas prices support used EV values?

They did in the first half of 2026, and Cox Automotive said so explicitly at the time. The explanation stopped working in the third quarter. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.48 a gallon on September 24, 2026 — up 38 cents in a month, up $1.32 on the year, and the highest ever recorded for that point in the calendar. Used EV values fell anyway. When fuel prices rise 9% in a month and EV values still drop, demand is no longer the binding constraint; supply is.

What happened to the federal used EV tax credit?

The federal used clean vehicle credit under Section 25E — worth up to $4,000, or 30% of the sale price, whichever was less, on qualifying used EVs priced at $25,000 or below — expired on September 30, 2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. It had been introduced on January 1, 2023 by the Inflation Reduction Act. A number of state-level programs continued into 2026, including in California, Colorado and Massachusetts, with terms and funding that vary and change; confirm current eligibility in your own state rather than relying on a national summary.

How does used EV depreciation compare with gas vehicles?

In the current market, about 2.6 times faster. Between the end of June and mid-September 2026 the Manheim EV Index fell 7.9% while the non-EV index fell 3.1%. That ratio is a snapshot of one ten-week stretch during an unusual supply event, not a structural depreciation rate, and it should not be projected forward. The durable point for a dealer is that EV values move in larger steps than the rest of the market, which makes the age of your comparable data matter more.

What should a dealer check before appraising a used EV?

Decode the VIN to the exact trim and battery pack rather than the nameplate, because usable capacity and range vary widely within a single model. Pull a battery state-of-health reading. Confirm how much battery and powertrain warranty remains and whether it transfers to a second owner. Use comparable listings no more than about two weeks old. And check local days-to-sell, because EVs reach a narrower buyer pool in most markets and a correct value on a unit that sits for ninety days is still a loss once holding cost is counted.

The Bottom Line

Used EV values are the clearest current example of a number that is true and useless at the same time. Up 2.3% year over year in mid-September 2026, down 7.9% over the preceding ten weeks, and both figures published in the same monthly release by the same people. The year-over-year line is measuring how far the segment climbed out of a weak 2025. The month-over-month line is measuring what your inventory is doing.

The cause of falling used EV prices is not mysterious, and it is not demand. More than 300,000 electric vehicles come off lease in 2026 against roughly 123,000 in 2025, EV share of Manheim volume has passed 4%, and a segment that thin cannot absorb that much supply without the clearing price moving hard. Gasoline at $4.48 a gallon, a record for the date, did not stop it.

For a dealer the operational point is narrow and worth real money: in a segment moving 4.7% a month, the age of your comparable data matters more than almost anything else in the appraisal. Ten-week-old comparables put you about $1,900 high on a $24,000 EV. The same staleness costs about $740 on a combustion unit of the same value. Same process, same tolerance, more than double the error — and it lands entirely on the segment arriving in your lanes in growing volume.

Sources

• Cox Automotive, Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: Mid-September 2026 Trends — index at 206.2, EV Index +2.3% year over year and -1.3% month over month, non-EV -1.3% and -1.4%, wholesale supply 27.8 days.
• Cox Automotive, Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: August 2026 Trends — index at 208.2, EV Index +4.5% year over year and -4.7% month over month, non-EV -0.9% and -0.6%.
• Cox Automotive, Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: July 2026 Trends — index at 210.0, EV Index +10.5% year over year and -2.1% month over month, EV share above 4% of index units.
• Cox Automotive, Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Normalizes in Q2 After Strong Start in 2026 — June index at 212.9, EV Index +12% year over year, EVs under 4% of Manheim sales volume at that point.
• NIADA, “Off-Lease EV Wave Set to Reshape Used Inventory in 2026,” July 7, 2026 — more than 300,000 EV lease returns projected for 2026 against roughly 123,000 in 2025; returning units typically 2022-2023 models at about 25,000 miles.
• Experian, via Cox Automotive reporting — EVs projected to reach 15% of all off-lease vehicles by the end of 2026, from 7.7% in Q1 2026.
• AAA, national average fuel prices — regular gasoline at $4.4825 per gallon on September 24, 2026, against $4.0991 a month earlier and $3.1634 a year earlier.
• Recurrent, used EV tax credit guidance — Section 25E used clean vehicle credit of up to $4,000 expired September 30, 2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act; surviving state programs as of June 2026.

Related reading from TradeBasis

Resource	What it covers
US Used Vehicle Market Report, September 2026	Why Manheim and the Black Book Retention Index diverged, and how the market split by vehicle age.
Used Car Holding Costs in 2026	What a day on the lot costs, and why slow-turning inventory turns a correct appraisal into a loss.
Negative Equity Trade-Ins in 2026	How lender advance caps decide whether a deal funds, and why ACV accuracy is the cheapest lever in the structure.
Sourcing Cars from Private Listings	Buying outside the lanes when auction supply tightens, and how to value what you find.
Appraisal Software for Independent Dealers and Wholesalers	Which tool fits which kind of operation, and the franchise features a small store can safely ignore.
TradeBasis vs vAuto · TradeBasis vs Carbly	Side-by-side comparisons of TradeBasis against the two tools independent dealers most often evaluate.

About TradeBasis

TradeBasis is independent used-vehicle appraisal and market intelligence software for US franchised and independent dealers, built by Basis Software Inc. It values a vehicle against live US dealer listings rather than lagging guide-book averages: comparables are matched by trim, every comparable is shown and linked to its source ad where available, the appraiser can exclude outliers and watch the value recalculate, and the valuation adjusts for mileage and days on market.

Lite is $99 USD per month for one user with unlimited VIN-based appraisals, live US market data, trim-aware comp sets, mileage and velocity adjustments and one-click competitor ad views. Pro is $249 USD per month for up to ten users and adds the full appraisal worksheet, reconditioning cost tracking, printable trade walk-down reports, a Workbench KPI dashboard, inventory management, and appraisal history and search. Both are month-to-month with no contract, no setup fee and all data included. There is no free trial. See plans and pricing.

TradeBasis is not affiliated with Cox Automotive, Manheim, Experian, AAA, any OEM or any auction house. It is not an EV diagnostic or battery-testing tool and it has no EV-specific features.

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Index figures in this article are reproduced from Cox Automotive’s published monthly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index releases, with their original periods. Cumulative figures are compounded from the published month-over-month changes and are labelled as such. September 2026 figures cover the first half of the month only. Index values describe the aggregate wholesale market and are not a valuation for any individual vehicle. Dollar examples are illustrative. Tax credit information reflects federal law as of the date shown and state programs change frequently; confirm current eligibility with a qualified advisor. This article is informational and is not legal, tax or financial advice.